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The most recent weekly College Basketball AP Top 25 Poll (1-18-08) and the odds latest Sagarin (1-17-08) provide some clues about which Teams are overrated.
Sagarin Ratings provide a panoramic view of identifying teams that have played a lot of weak sisters to build an impressive start to the season Won-loss record and now face the consequences of competition played in the league.
You can learn much by observing the strength programming of the top-rated teams. My method is to divide the 341 Division 1 teams in total 5 categories (literally, 340 divided by 5 equals 68). This creates a Top 20% (1-68), 2nd floor (69-136), 3rd Floor (137-204), Level 4 (205 to 272) and 20% (273-340).
The 20% is the top-flight competition. I think in the next 3 levels of the 2nd string, 3rd string and 4th string competition. The bottom 20% believe that live at the bottom to feed on the crumbs that fall from their previous level.
Here are 4 teams in the AP Top 25 Poll and I probably overestimated the prove in the future Next: No. 25 Villanova, No. 16 Vanderbilt, No. 10 Texas A & M and No. 21 Miami (FL). These 4 are given a rank much higher in the AP poll by Sagarin is his opinion.
The most exaggerated is ranked No. 25, Villanova is ranked 57th by Sagarin. Villanova sports an impressive record of 12-3, but their strength of schedule (SOS) is 240. In other words, Villanueva earned a record by playing 4 levels (or 4th string) competition.
Vanderbilt is ranked 16th in the AP and 36 in the Sagarin ratings. Vandy has a record of 12-3, but its SOS is 164 because of playing 3 levels (3) sentence of competition.
Texas A & M is ranked 10th by the AP and rated 24th by Sagarin. A & M is a mark of 14-2, but its SOS is 290 because of playing among the bottom 20% of the competition. Texas A & M, true to my prediction, just bothered by none other than Bob Knight and Texas Tech Red Raiders, 68-53. The victory was Knight of the 900th. Knight is No. 1 on the NCAA Division 1 victories list.
Texas Tech is ranked 80th by Sagarin with a record of 9-6, but its SOS is 104 because 2 levels of play (2nd string) competition. The Red Raiders clearly played much better competition before Meeting of the Texas A & M Aggies and it showed.
Miami (FL) is ranked 21st AP and rated 33rd by Sagarin. Miami is a mark of 13-2, but its SOS is 281 because of playing among the bottom 20% of the competition. You get the picture.
Here Another outstanding example of the Pac-10. Oregon is not ranked in the AP Top 25, but is ranked 31st by Sagarin with a record of 12-5 and its SOS is 24 because of competition from high-flying game.
Washington is not ranked in the Top 25 but is ranked 65th by Sagarin with a 10-7 record and its SOS is 50 for high-flying competition game. Washington, Oregon just beat 78-70 at home. Note that both teams are ranked between 20% and equipment are used to playing a competition flight.
This does not work for 99% of the time. North Carolina A & T is rated 268th by Sagarin with a 2-9 record and an eye - SOS POP 2. They played the 2nd hardest schedule in the country so far this season, but nobody cares not before, because they are too low to begin Only 5 points for being in the bottom 20% nationally.
Copyright © 2008 Ed Bagley
Ed Bagley's Blog Publishes Original Articles with Analysis and Commentary on 5 Subjects: Sports, Movie Reviews, Lessons in Life, Jobs and Careers, and Internet Marketing. My intention is to inform, educate, delight and motivate you the reader.
Read my articles on "The Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them", "How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss", my 14 consecutive weekly wrap-up articles on the 2007 College Football Season, and my 32-game bowl season wrap-up series. The bowl wrap-up is strictly for hard core football junkies; it goes on for 17 pages.
Find my Blog at:
http://www.edbagleyblog.com
http://www.edbagleyblog.com/Sports.html
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